Back to basics
After a long absence from this little blog I’m finally back. I’m hoping to update more frequently now that the Brewers have played almost a month and a half of games.
Fantasy Hitters:
Rickie Weeks: .274/.348/.504 25R, 8HR, 22RBI, 1SB
Rickie has been a very solid fantasy option for those who took a gamble on him as their starting second baseman. He’s also been a steal for those fantasy players that grabbed him late or off of waivers. Rickie has provided power in the lead off position and is a run scoring threat when he gets on base. When Ryan Braun was held out of the lineup for quad soreness, Ken Macha batted Weeks third for two games. In those two games, Weeks was 3-9 1HR, 3RBIs and 4K’s. His home run from the 3 spot provided all three of his RBI’s and came during a game changing situation in the bottom of the 8th inning to give the Brewers the lead and eventually the win. Rickie definitely has the ability to slug for a nice percentage and score runs batting 1st, his RBI potential skyrockets if he’s ever moved back to the third spot in the order. Right now it doesn’t look like that will happen as Rickie has maintained a nice average for a leadoff hitter, continuing to get on base and score runs. His 34/10 K/BB ratio isn’t that great for those of you penalized for strikeouts.
Corey Hart: .262/.343/.421 3HR, 14RBI, 3SB
After a hot spring training where it seemed like Hart was blasting home runs with relative ease, Hart has regressed to numbers similar to his career average. He’s tied for the team lead in stolen bases, and he’s a definite threat on the base paths. Ken Macha has stated that he does not want to make outs on the bases, with all the power the lineup has to offer, so Hart may not be given many opportunities to steal bases as he has in the past. He still has the potential to have a Jayson Werthesque type game where he has 3 or 4 steals. It all depends on the opportunities given to him. I still value Corey Hart for his run scoring and stolen base ability than his HR/RBI potential. He definitely has the power, but he’s much more reliable on base than he is at the plate.
Hart’s infield fly ball percentage: 28.2% (career 8.1%)
Hart’s home run to fly ball ratio: 7.7% (career 11.4%)
Hart’s bunt for a hit percentage: 0.0% (career 47.1%)
Ryan Braun: .342/.457/.614 8HR, 28RBI, 3SB
After being held out for 3 games due to a sore back, Ryan Braun returned to the Brewers and promptly won the National League player of the week award. In seven games last week, Braun hit .458 (11-24) with eight runs
scored, three home runs and three doubles slugging .958 with a .567 on-base
percentage. He’s easily the Brewers #1 fantasy player, producing something for your team every night. Kudos for those taking Ryan Braun with their first overall pick.
Prince Fielder: .272./.419/.526 7HR, 29RBI, 0SB (over/under 3?)
Prince took hold of the Brewers RBI lead on Tuesday with a 2HR, 4RBI game. He may not be the most elite first baseman in the National League, but he’s certainly top 5 with plenty of power potential. Prince has been instructed to take his walks if pitchers won’t pitch to him, as shown in his increased on-base percentage (career .373). The possibility of regression always lingers, but now that the Brewers are paying Prince, and as long as the hitters hitting in front and behind him are producing, Fielder is the Brewers second best fantasy player.
J.J. Hardy: .218/.296/.391 5HR, 17RBI, 0SB
Brewer fans know Hardy is prone to slumps. J.J. cooled off to start the season after a very hot spring training. His bat has begun to pick up, especially after a two game stretch where Macha suggested Hardy take a mental break to focus on his swing. Macha’s decision has definitely paid off. Since May 3rd, the first day back after his mental break, Hardy raised his batting average from .156 to .218, going 12-33 with 2HR and 9RBI’s. This is definitely a good sign to Hardy owners who were worrying about his spot in a fantasy lineup. Hopefully he was stashed away on a bench instead of dropped, and if you picked him up after a foolish owner dropped him, even better. Hardy’s BABIP is .235, well below his career average of .281, he will get better.
Mike Cameron: .296/.398/.593 7HR, 19RBI, 2SB
Cameron has definitely been a great source of average and power from the CF position. A proven veteran, the Brewers know what they have in Cameron: solid defense with 20HR/20SB potential. Also proven is Cameron’s ability to strike out, which hasn’t been too big of a problem for him this year, his BB/K ratio in 2009 is .86, almost double his career ratio of .46. Cameron is also making contact with 63.3% of the pitches thrown to him that are outside the strike zone, his percentage since 2002 is 41.1%. These numbers suggest Cameron is playing well above his career average, and that regression is possible. Regardless, Cameron is benefitting from hitting behind Prince Fielder and all fantasy owners should reap his success as long as it lasts.
I will update fantasy pitchers soon!
Starting Slow, Making Adjustments
After the first 14 games the Brewers are 5-9, and fans around Milwaukee are already starting to show signs of panic. 3 weeks in and I’ve already spoken to so many pessimistic fans ready to throw in the towel on the season. Doubts of pitching, timely hitting and bench play keep echoing through my ears after every Brewer loss. These concerns are definitely warranted, but it’s the month of April, there’s too much time left.
It’s as if Milwaukee has been spoiled by success. The 2008 Brewers were 15-12 at the end of April. The 2007 team was 16-9. These hot starts shook Milwaukee from their beds and to Miller Park, where attendance has grown significantly the past 3 years. FSN Wisconsin has also seen ratings climb as interest for the team is growing all over the state. Gone are the days where you could show up to the stadium minutes before the game and expect to find great seats still available. The Brewers are filling their stadium, and despite their slow start, the talent is there and fans are still willing to watch their beloved Brewers.
Wednesday’s win for the Brewers was nerve racking, especially with how the Brewers bullpen has been performing. DiFelice and Villanueva put up two perfect innings to take the Brewers to the ninth with a 3-0 lead. Todd Coffey started slow in the 9th, surrendering a 1 out home run to Jayson Werth. Coffey struggled to get the last 2 outs, allowing 2 more hits and putting every Brewer fan on the edge of their seat. Coffey got his outs and the Brewers got the win, and boy did they need it.
The team has remained very calm these first few weeks, which is a good sign. If the Brewers have anything on the rest of the teams in the NL Central it is their clubhouse. It’s obvious that every member on the team gets along and there isn’t a tense atmosphere between players on and off the field. It helps that Prince Fielder, Rickie Weeks, J.J. Hardy and Corey Hart all came up through the system together playing with eachother. Ryan Braun is an absolute class act, there’s no way you could hate the man if he was your teammate, and I don’t think Bill Hall would yell at anybody except an umpire. This young core of players gives fans a reason to be excited for their team, and it makes it better when you know they’re all good friends.
I’ll talk about the veterans later…
J.J. Hardy has definitely been the victim of bad luck, although his line of .157/.185/.353 would say he’s struggling. Hardy’s BABIP (batting average on balls in play) is .132, which means that of the balls he is putting into play, he is earning a hit 13% of the time. His BABIP in 2008 was .305 and .279 in 2007, which suggests that Hardy has been the victim of defenses making outs with his hits. He certainly isn’t making all of his outs at the plate, his strikeout percentage is 20.4. In watching many of Hardy’s plate appearances, it obvious he’s been able to make some good swings and drive the ball. Fifty percent of his hits have been extra base hits, so the power is still there.
I like J.J. moving down in the order to take pressure off of himself. Mike Cameron has been teriffic to start the season and Ken Macha is doing right by riding his hot bad. So far this year, Cameron is batting .326/.415/.674. He K/BB is 8/7, which is normal for Mike, he’ll strikeout his fair share of at bats. What I like most about Cameron hitting 5th is his ground ball/fly ball ratio is .27, which means he’s putting the ball in the air rather than on the ground. This is imporant, especially batting behind Prince Fielder who will see many walks this year. Cameron’s GB/FB ratio of .27 means that there will be far fewer double plays coming from the 5th spot in the order. This was a problem, especially late last season when Corey Hart found himself putting the ball on the ground in way too many situations when he batted 5th.
As I write this, the Brewers are up 2-0 in the top of the 5th in Philadelphia. The bases are loaded and Prince just drove a 2-2 fastball down the left field line to drive in three runs. Fielder’s swing was absolutely gorgeous, he didn’t try to pull the ball but rather went the other way with the ball. If Prince can do this on a consistent basis, his batting average will soar as defenses will have to stop putting on a dramatic defensive shift in their infields.
Time to stop writing and enjoy the game!
4/22 Squandering Opportunities
Tuesday’s loss was a rude awakening for the Brewers. The team had built momentum in New York by avoiding a sweep on Sunday, and the only left handed starter for the Brewers was starting against a powerful left handed Philadelphia lineup. Manny Parra was coming off of a Loss however he did register a quality start against the Reds last Tuesday. A week of rest seemed to work well for Jeff Suppan in his last start, would it work for Parra?
The Phillies exploded on Manny Parra, scoring 5 runs over Parra’s four innings. Manny allowed 7 hits and 3 walks while striking out 4 batters. Jorge Julio also allowed 2 hits 3 walks and 4 runs in only 2/3 of an inning of work. Before the 5th inning ended, Philadelphia was up 10-3.
Jamie Moyer was stellar for the Phillies, allowing one Brewer batter to drive in runs. Ryan Braun homered twice against Moyer, the his first coming in the opening inning where Braun basically showed all the Brewer right handed hitters how to hit Moyer. Braun stroked a fastball away and placed in nicely in the right field seats, showcasing his amazing ability to hit to the oposite field with power. Braun’s 2nd and 3rd RBI’s came from a towering blast to the left field seats, putting the brewers within 2 runs. Unfortunately, no other Brewers could capitalize with runners in socring position.
Batting behind Braun, Prince Fielder and J.J. Hardy were 1-7 with 7 runners left on base. Hardy and Fielder have been struggling to generate offense, as evidenced by their dangerously low batting averages to start the season: .125 and .163 respectively.
Looking deeper, it shows that J.J. Hardy may be suffering from bad luck. His BABIP (batting average on balls in play) is an insanely low .108. This means that of all the balls Hardy has made contact with and put in play
Brewers Fantasy Update 4/16
The Brewers don’t have quite the same amount of fantasy studs on their pitching staff as they did in 2008, however there are still players on the roster that can have value for certain fantasy teams.
Right now, the only Brewers starter that is worth owning AND starting every start is Yovanni Gallardo. His ERA may be above 6 but his WHIP is 1.29 and batters are only hitting .209 against him, striking out 9 times in 11.2 innings. With run support, Yovanni is very capable of winning 15 games or more with a low ERA and WHIP and plenty of strikeouts.
Two other Brewers starters, Dave Bush and Braden Looper have fantasy value, however they are definitely match up starters, meaning you want to pick favorable matchups in which to start them.
Bush is 23-14 at Miller Park with an ERA of 3.76 and a WHIP of 1.10 over 47 starts in his career. He definitely deserves consideration for a start when he’s at home. You might want to sit him against an extremely hot hitting team but he’s good for a go 90% of the time at home.
Looper is new to the Brewers this year after coming off a season where he threw a career high 199 innings. He posted a fairly average line of 12-14 with an ERA of 4.16 and a WHIP of 1.31. He is definitely a spot-starter at this point for fantasy teams, and if your league counts quality starts he has a lot more value, but he’s a pitcher to watch this year if you’re chasing wins.
First home stand book ended with wins
The 2009 Milwaukee Brewers have finished their first home stand of the season, winning two of the 6 games. While their early home record isn’t impressive at all for a team that has thrived at home in the past, the Brewers were able win the first and final games of the stretch, welcoming and sending their local fans home with hope.
Wednesday’s win against the Reds was a sigh of relief to many Brewer fans that didn’t want to see the team drop 5 of 6 games at home so early in the season. Braden Looper earned his second quality start as a Brewer allowing 3 runs over 6 innings while striking out 5 batters and only walking 1. Looper was excellent against the Reds’ 4, 5, and 6 hitters who went 0-12 with 2 strikeouts and 5 men left on base.
Looper so far has done exactly what has been asked of him, pitch quality innings. The Brewers have won both games he has started, which accounts for over 60% of the Brewers wins (3). It is still ridiculously early in the season, and if Looper can match his appearance numbers from last year (33 games started, 199 innings pitched) he has a lot more pitching in front of him. Still, Looper’s first two starts can give hope to Brewers fans worried about the middle of the rotation.
The Brewers offense exploded for 9 runs, including a 5 run 6th inning thanks to Bill Hall and Jason Kendall driving in 3 runs from the bottom of the order. Rickie Weeks fueled the fire by hitting a 2 run home run with 2 outs in the inning. Mike Cameron put the Brewers ahead early, with solo home runs in the 2nd and 4th innings.
Runs were bountiful at Miller Park on Wednesday, a true welcoming to the season for the Brewers. Those who watched the Brewers early this season could clearly see that the team was pressing at times to score runs. It also seemed that the Brewers couldn’t get past the 6 run mark, something of a concern to a young lineup with a lot of power potential. Corey Hart was the only Brewer position player to not hit safely in the game, going 0-4 with 5 men left on base.
Hart batted in the #5 spot on Wednesday, a spot he was more familiar with during the 2008 season. Hart has spent most of his time batting #2 this year where he has enjoyed success. So far this season, Corey has batted in the 2, 5 and 6 spots in the order. While he is definitely a versatile player that has the ability to produce in either of those spots in the lineup, he has definitely proven to have more value as a #2 hitter. His base running ability behind Rickie Weeks is a very deadly run scoring combination. Corey has also been taking more pitches this season, something that he seems to be having more success with when the bases aren’t crowded with runners to drive in.
The Brewers have today off and head on a road stretch to play the Mets, Phillies and Astros. The first long trip of the season will definitely be a test for Brewer batters and pitchers, but the team is a year older, and coming off a big offensive win can definitely light a fire under this team.
Brewers Fantasy Update 4/14
In terms of fantasy baseball, the Brewers have been struggling. Corey Hart has been the only power candidate out of the 5 Brewer hitters worth owning in most fantasy leagues. The season is just beginning so there’s no need to make any drops due to low production.
Notable Batters: (average/on-base percentage/slugging)
Rickie Weeks: (.276/.374/.448) (7R, 1HR, 4RBI, 1SB)
Corey Hart: (.308/.418/.769) (6R, 3HR, 5RBI, 0SB)
Ryan Braun: (.192/.364/.269) (2R, 0HR, 2RBI, 2SB)
Prince Fielder: (.208/.375/.417) (1R, 1HR, 5RBI, 0SB)
J.J. Hardy: (.107/.143/.214) (2R, 1HR, 5RBI, 0SB)
The 1-5 hitters of the Brewers are all great fantasy options. With Braun and Fielder having the most value over the long term. Hart has value as a 20HR-20SB outfielder with the potential to go 30-30 (based on the small sample size of the opening week and his spot batting 2nd).
Hardy and Weeks have the least value of the 5, however they are still worth owning as they have high ceilings playing the middle infield positions. Weeks has started strong by being a menace on the base paths, he’s a legitimate base stealing thread with a great ability to score runs. Hardy has played solid defense but that’s about it, although he hit his first home run of the season on Monday night. Hardy is known to be inconsistent but when he starts seeing the ball he can rake with the best of them.
Brewers pitchers will be updated this afternoon.
4/13 Impressions
Monday’s game was a surprise to many fans expecting to see a pitchers duel. Two of the NL Central’s promising young arms were on display Monday night, however the result was different than one may expect. Cincinnati’s Edinson Volquez and Milwaukee’s Yovanni Gallardo combined to allow 13 runs while each pitcher lasted only 5 innings.
Gallardo was the victim of a horrendous 3rd inning. After allowing an RBI single to Joey Votto, Gallardo loaded the bases with two walks, and then hit batter Jay Bruce to bring in one more run. Edwin Encarnacion stepped to the plate after Bruce and promptly delivered an inside waist-high fastball into the outfield seats, bringing the 3rd inning run toll to 6.
After the inning, Gallardo huddled in the dugout under his coat, obviously disappointed by his efforts. The young pitcher was able to collect himself and delivered two more scoreless innings and throwing 100 pitches, 58 for strikes. This was a very promising sign to Brewer fans and Gallardo, as it showed that the young ace can get past his mistakes and continue to pitch quality innings after the damage has been done.
Brewer batters should be satisfied with their production off of Volquez, who often stifled the Brewer offense in 2008. The Brewers collected 7 hits and drew 4 walks from Volquez that resulted in 6 runs, including a 3 run home run from Corey Hart. Hart has done everything he can to bounce back from his terrible late 2008 collapse, and his presence batting 2nd has been very productive to start the season.
Hart has been taking more pitches. His pitches per at bat (#P/PA) is up almost 1 pitch since last year: 3.47 in 2008, 4.44 in 2009. Hart’s ability to draw extra more pitches per at-bat can be very beneficial, as he’ll be given more pitches to drive. Hart is slugging .591 early on this season, and he is a terror on the base paths. If this continues with Hart batting 2nd behind a much improved Rickie Weeks and in front of Ryan Braun and Prince Fielder, he could be well on his way to driving in and scoring 85-90 runs.
First Week Impressions
The Brewers started their first week of the season with a 2-4 record, splitting the first 6 games between San Francisco and Milwaukee. Over the past few years, the Brewers have enjoyed early success during the first week of the season, mostly due to stellar opening day performances from Ben Sheets. Those days are past, and as Jeff Suppan showed during his first two outings, a teams #1 starter is essential for establishing a rhythm.
Suppan’s line after two games has been nothing short of pathetic: 7.2 innings, 8 hits, 11 runs. His WHIP and ERA are 1.96 and 12.91 respectively. After issuing his third bases loaded walk, Suppan trudged to the Brewers dugout to a sea of boos from the crowd. Brewer fans were outnumbered by Cubs fans on Sunday night, but their boos for Suppan echoed louder than any of the cheers uttered by the satisfied opposing crowd.
Suppan is stuck on the Brewers roster, as his contract makes him virtually untradeable. His role as a front line starter needs to be questioned, regardless of how early it is in the season. Hoping for a quality start against teams with much better pitchers puts the Brewers in a lot of come from behind situations, and the offense already has too much pressure as it is.
Manager Ken Macha has mentioned that Suppan will not be in the #1 slot for long, and it was his decision to rely on Suppan’s experience early in the season to get the team ready for the long haul. Early April can be seen by some fans as extended spring training, where the games count, and Brewer fans don’t need to loose sleep over Suppan’s early struggles. The season is long but the early games still count, and Suppan’s early mistakes need to be a continuing concern.
The Brewers offense hasn’t been able to produce runs to win ball games, but they have been working many quality at-bats making starting pitchers throw a lot of pitches. The start from Matt Cain aside, the Brewers haven’t let a starter go more than 6 innings. Those who pitched 6 innings: Zambrano, Harden and Dempster were given a lot of work over those innings, throwing 118, 110 and 96 pitches respectively. The runs didn’t appear this week, but if the Brewers can continue work quality at-bats early in the game and force opposing pitchers to throw strikes after throwing 80-90 pitches, they can definitely produce runs.
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